BowTied BetPicks Australia now live!
BowTied BetPicks Australia now live!
Beat the Bookies Down Under
Proper BowTiedBettor post coming next week, this is a quick update regarding BowTied BetPicks [our Betting Product that was launched ~2 months ago].
What is BowTied BetPicks? - A service providing ~35-40 Profitable Horse Racing Bet Picks each & every day.
How does it find 'profitable' bets? - By tracking the action at the Betfair Exchange & tailing sharp & informative moves via betting them at slow sportsbooks [steam chasing].
How good is it? - Our ~340 personal [live test, no backtest BS] sample shows an average expected value of ~14 % as measured against Betfair Closing Odds.
Reasons to join?
You're interested in beating the bookies.
You've recently completed BR [bonus rugging] & would like to collect some extra money from the bookies from pure +EV betting.
You're an experienced gambler with great access to sportsbook accounts & are interested in complementing your current setup with a top quality angle/stream of bets!
For a more comprehensive introduction to BowTied BetPicks, see this post or have a look at the dedicated website.
UPDATE: Our Bot has now been extended to Australian Racing & Bookmakers and a Channel targeted at AUS bettors has been set up.
General Information:
- Due to Minimum Bet Laws/Limits in Australia the bookmakers [at least the ones included in the notifications, appears to exist smaller ones that aren't as compliant] won't throw you out despite the obvious +EV action this kind of strategy generates. Note that this only applies to AUS racing & doesn't hold true for UK/IRE races. For more information on Minimum Bet Laws, have a look at e.g. https://www.championbets.com.au/news-article/minimum-bet-limits-state.
- AUS racing will therefore offer you a reliable long-term +EV angle, expect 6-8 bets as a daily average & slightly more during Wednesdays & Saturdays.
- UK/IRE races offer tons of daily opportunities [35-40/day] & we very much recommend you to take advantage of them as soon & as much as possible. You'll probably be allowed to bet for a while/up to a fixed net profit as in the rest of the world and then have your accounts limited [with limits specifically targeting those markets]. Since we aren't Aussies ourselves we have no real experience here & hence can't estimate the volume they'll allow you to get on before being banned. Don't bet max limit & throw in some random bets both on Horse Racing and on random popular stuff to hide what you're doing & have your accounts last longer.
- At times some sportsbooks are slow to react to SCRATCHES (horses that won't run), so if there's multiple notifications at once for horses running in the same race a scratch is likely to be the reason. Beware of betting those as they'll either adjust your odds (TATTERSALLS RULE 4) and/or limit your account.
- In rare cases the bookies are way off with their prices following a sharp drop [especially true for Bet365]. Under such circumstances there can often be great value in the Place & Show [Top 2/Top 3] markets as well so make sure to take a look at them if you observe unusually large EV's in the win markets.
- For our Bet365 data we're currently relying on third party data providers. This introduces a slight delay & as a consequence there are cases [~10-20 %] where the Bet365 odds posted by the Bot aren't available at the website anymore.
- To turn the notifications into profits, we've found the following rules of thumb to be good:
1. Lower odds (< 10) preferred to higher ones (> 10) as the books for longshots are often fairly illiquid.
2. There is EV in early moves [WARNING: Some of the early moves in AUS markets are weird. We've done our best to filter out the majority of them but every now & then such a drop slips through so please apply extra caution before tailing those drops.], but the ones that are really valuable are the ones that take place during racedays (<2 hours before the race), especially the *very late* steamers. They're gone fast though so unless you're at the desk & take them immediately you'll miss them.
We've listed a couple of potential decision rules in the answer to the last question in our FAQ to give you an idea of how to translate the information provided here into a profitable strategy. See https://betpicks.bowtiedbettor.com/faq.
Australian Group will be capped at 20 subscribers since we’ve figured out a way to get some action on at the AUS Racing ourselves.
Happy to take suggestions/questions, get in touch with us on Twitter.
Good luck! 🎉
Proof of Concept
More Stats & Graphs providing both general pieces of information as well as a proof of concept can be found on this link.
Complete the sign-up process here.
That’s all for today, until next time…