The Power Of Simulations
Level 5 - SHARP
Do you have a friend who likes betting and would like to sharpen his/her action? Help them on their path by sharing the BowTiedBettor Substack. Win and help win!
Welcome Degen Gambler!
Today we’ll touch on an important & very interesting topic: running simulations to obtain a better understanding of the future. There’s no doubt that the ability to run & learn from simulations is a crucial tool for any bettor trying to recognize what the future may have in store for him. Without it he’ll naturally fall victim to the #1 predator in gambling, randomness.
We’ll illustrate the power of simulations by having a look at two different questions.
A UK Horse Racing gambler has recently signed up to the BowTied BetPicks Premium Service & has, during his first week, placed a total of 100 bets on different Bot recommendations. He’s been placing flat bets of £100/bet & is interested in learning what an arbitrary week/month/year may have in store for him if he keeps rollin’ at the same pace!
A Longshot Enjoyooor is placing one $10 000 longshot bet a week with the following payoff structure: There’s a 1/100 chance that he wins a million & a 1/8 chance that the bet returns $30 000. At 37.5 % EV he understands that the structure could be an opportunity of a lifetime, but he’s curious to whether his portfolio will be able to stand the variance or not. After all, he values being comfy & cool while emptying the market’s pockets.
Note: Case 2 above may sound like a very much invented problem. It’s not. IYKYK.
Mathematics offer a tremendous amount of tools to understand reality. However, the closer you get to real world phenomena [which are unique, flexible & rarely adhere to standard mathematical rules], the more advanced & complex the models become.