No one ever knows. When we speak of the "true probability" it's really more of an abstract notion. Allowing for such a notion helps a lot in understanding games of chance though, as it all becomes a game of finding & betting on the outcomes with higher implied probabilities than their "true" ones.
Yes, of course no one knowswhat true odds are. I enjoy and find your content fascinating, but sometimes i get very confused. I would appreciate if you could explain how we can create the set up for horse value betting. That is, how we could create models, simulations and extrapolate it to real races.
Thanks you for your kind words, ser. With time the full 'setup recipe' will be out there, & when that time has come we'll write up a post that ties it all together.
& yes, we'll dive into more specific model building as well. The thing is: it's not the easiest endeavour & since, *for now*, we're far from any masters of that part of the game, we don't want to put out NGMI content & waste your time with tons of BS models.
Very insightful, thannk you. A brief question, though. How could you know what the true prob is, in order to find wrong odds?
No one ever knows. When we speak of the "true probability" it's really more of an abstract notion. Allowing for such a notion helps a lot in understanding games of chance though, as it all becomes a game of finding & betting on the outcomes with higher implied probabilities than their "true" ones.
Yes, of course no one knowswhat true odds are. I enjoy and find your content fascinating, but sometimes i get very confused. I would appreciate if you could explain how we can create the set up for horse value betting. That is, how we could create models, simulations and extrapolate it to real races.
Again, thank you for your effort and keep going.
Best regards!
Thanks you for your kind words, ser. With time the full 'setup recipe' will be out there, & when that time has come we'll write up a post that ties it all together.
& yes, we'll dive into more specific model building as well. The thing is: it's not the easiest endeavour & since, *for now*, we're far from any masters of that part of the game, we don't want to put out NGMI content & waste your time with tons of BS models.