New to BowTiedBettor? ***START HERE!***
An overview of the BowTiedBettor Substack
Do you have a friend who likes betting and would like to sharpen his/her action? Help them on their path by sharing the BowTiedBettor Substack. Win and help win!
This is the official “directory” of the BowTiedBettor Substack.
The purpose of this is to provide you with a logical way/order to read the articles.
This page will be updated periodically to keep some type of continuity as we jump into more advanced concepts [this will become increasingly important as you’ll at some point, in some cases already, need to read certain posts before reading the newer ones].
The content has been subdivided into three segments.
“Start here!”, beginner material. Recommended for everyone but in particular for novices.
“More involved betting concepts”. General betting material. Requires familiarity with basic betting concepts in order to be properly understood.
“Coding”. Coding/programming is becoming increasingly important for bettors and this segment covers all things code. Requires basic Python knowledge.
Depending on whether you’re new to betting or have been in the game for a while, there are different recommended paths for you to take.
New to betting?
Welcome!
Begin by reading the “Start here!” stuff thoroughly. If your goal is to actually understand betting, it’s extremely important to build from first principles.
After doing the above, you’re now standing on firm ground. Continue your adventure by delving deep into the “More involved betting concepts”-jungle.
And, if you’re intrigued by coding, complement the “More involved betting concepts” with the “Coding”-segment.
Experienced bettor?
Welcome!
Head straight to “More involved betting concepts” and begin there.
As for the novices, if you’re intrigued by coding, complement the “More involved betting concepts” with the “Coding”-segment.
Start here!
Welcome to the BowTiedBettor Substack! - [Level 1 - NGMI] - Our first post.
Betting 101 - [Level 1 - NGMI] - This post explains the basics of betting and provides solid information on many important betting terms. Odds, probability, implied probability, EV, ROI, variance, RTP…
More involved betting concepts
Conditional probability & Bayes Theorem - [Level 2 - DEEP DIVER] - The art of conditional thinking is most definitely a hack, not only in betting. This post presents the basics of it.
Practical aspects of betting - [Level 2 - DEEP DIVER] - What’s required to run a successful betting operation? A discussion of day-to-day stuff such as limits, multi accounting, price discovery & much more.
Adverse Selection in Betting Markets - [Level 2 - DEEP DIVER] - Start thinking about your counterparties, how they’re reasoning & what they’re doing, or keep getting picked off…
Learning from Odds Moves - [Level 3 - WAGMI] - Is your source a good source? Who’s behind the weird orders in the UK dogs market? Just. Track. It.
A Thought Or Two - [Level 4 - WAGMI 2.0] - A thoughtful treatment of market efficiency via a development of a precise distributional framework. Contains the true reason for why the Cartoon Horse keeps shilling Bayes!
Bayesian thinking & inference, part 1 - [Level 4 - WAGMI 2.0] - Learn how to learn from data, the bayesian way.
Bayesian thinking & inference, part 2 - [Level ∞ - BILL BETTOR] - What’s the probability of a NHL team winning a game, conditional on taking a lead into the third period? This post offers a Bayesian perspective on this fairly trivial question. Includes probabilistic programming in PyMC, an overview of the Bayesian workflow & some deep insights regarding data.
An initial look on the Kelly Criterion - [Level 4 - WAGMI 2.0] - Kelly is our favourite betting concept & it’s so much more than the stupid simple formula everyone refers to. Here’s an introduction to it.
The generalized Kelly Criterion - [Level 5 - SHARP] - A second look at the basics of the Kelly Criterion, now from a multidimensional point of view.
The Power Of Simulations - [Level 5 - SHARP] - Bootstrapping in Monte Carlo? Magic! Get to know one of the most *powerful* frameworks a bettor might equip himself with...
Bet sequences, an analysis - [Level ∞ - BILL BETTOR] - A comprehensive examination of bet sequences - the random sequences/processes that arise when a bettor places numerous bets within a certain time frame. P&L’s, ROI’s, Monte Carlo methods & Bayesian inference.
The art of pricing uncertainty - [Level ∞ - BILL BETTOR] - Discusses how the amount of uncertainty naturally acts as one of the fundamental pieces of the pricing process, as well as how it at times can yield unintuitive results.
Building & Deploying a Betfair Bot - [Level ∞ - BILL BETTOR] - Option Number One: stay at the desk 24/7, scan the markets manually to look for opportunities where you could run The Trade, & then run it if certain conditions/requirements are satisfied. Option Number Two: map your thoughts/conditions into code & let your computer perform the tasks for you.
Coding
Note: Our coding material assumes that you have some familiarity with Python.
Betting meets automation - [Level 2 - DEEP DIVER] - A brief discussion of what automation can bring to the betting table, combined with a note or two regarding when it does & when it doesn’t make sense to convert ideas into code.
A gentle introduction to the Betfair API - [Level 3 - WAGMI] - Introducing betfairlightweight & the Betfair API. Learn how to set up a Betfair account, generate an API-key and perform some basic operations.
Build your first odds scraper - [Level 5 - SHARP] - This post lets you acquaint yourself with Selenium, a browser automation tool suitable for scraping sports betting websites. Here, we utilize it to fetch NHL data from Unibet.
Scraping time… Selenium too slow! - [Level 5 - SHARP] - The most efficient way to gather online data is to mimic the behaviour of your web browser. Learn how in this post, where we again construct a simple Unibet NHL web scraper, however this time using more straightforward and considerably faster methods.
DraftKings scraping project, part 1/3 - [Level 5 - SHARP] - Nothing teaches you web scraping like a real web scraping project. Follow along as we initialize the creation of a complete DraftKings scraper.
DraftKings scraping project, part 2/3 - [Level 5 - SHARP] - Part 2 of our DraftKings series. As we transition into live odds scraping/streaming, the autism intensifies. For instance, you get to know the basics of the two Python libraries websockets & asyncio.
Levels
As you’ve probably noticed above, the posts within each segment have been assigned a certain level. Level 1 & 2 is meant to offer a simple and straightforward view of the world of betting and will stay FREE to offer insight for possible prospects. 3 & 4 are of medium difficulty while higher levels are intended to be *hard* in order to keep all the turbo autists satisfied.
Level ∞ - BILL BETTOR - Automated betting, exchange-API usage, advanced money management, model building, advanced Bayesian thinking.
Level 5 - SHARP - Exchange trading, web scraping, Bayesian models.
Level 4 - WAGMI 2.0 - Money management, optimizing portfolio growth.
Level 3 - WAGMI - Get started, collect your first 5 000 USTT.
Level 2 - DEEP DIVER - Delving deeper into the world of betting.
Level 1 - NGMI - Explaining the basics.
Note: If you prefer to proceed by level of difficulty, visit the BowTiedBettor website archive to have our posts sorted according to levels.
Finally: Hope you’ll enjoy the content!
Until next time…
Disclaimer: None of this is to be deemed legal or financial advice of any kind. These are *opinions* written by an anonymous group of mathematicians who moved into betting.
Hey! I recently joined, is there a discord or slack that you can add me to?
Hi Bowtiedbettor. Wanted to ask you if you know of any alternatives to betlabs/action network where I can build my own systems using the variety of filters they offer?