Discover more from BowTiedBettor
New to BowTiedBettor? ***START HERE!***
An overview of the BowTiedBettor Substack
Do you have a friend who likes betting and would like to sharpen his/her action? Help them on their path by sharing the BowTiedBettor Substack. Win and help win!
This is the official “directory” of the BowTiedBettor Substack.
The purpose of this is to provide you with a logical way/order to read the articles.
This page will be updated periodically to keep some type of continuity as we jump into more advanced concepts [this will become increasingly important as you’ll at some point, in some cases already, need to read certain posts before reading the newer ones].
The content has been subdivided into four segments.
“Start here!”, beginner material. Recommended for everyone but in particular for novices.
“BR”. Everything on bonus rugging, a simple scheme that teaches you how to, without much effort, make thousands of dollars by taking advantage of bookies' welcome offers.
“More involved betting concepts”. General betting material. Requires familiarity with basic betting concepts in order to be properly understood.
“Coding”. Coding/programming is becoming increasingly important for bettors and this segment covers all things code. Requires basic Python knowledge.
Depending on whether you’re new to betting or have been in the game for a while, there are different recommended paths for you to take.
Betting is widely regarded as a thing reserved for retards since “the house always wins”. As for all 100 IQ statements, there is of course much more to it. A necessary ability of a true BILL BETTOR is to master the art of smiling, nodding and agreeing with that assertion.
New to betting?
Begin by reading the “Start here!” stuff thoroughly. If your goal is to actually understand betting, it’s extremely important to build from first principles.
Continue by reading about and executing “BR” [taking advantages of bookies’ welcome bonuses]. Spend at least a couple of weeks doing this.
After doing the above, you’re now standing on firm ground. Continue your adventure by delving deep into the “More involved betting concepts”-jungle.
And, if you’re intrigued by coding, complement the “More involved betting concepts” with the “Coding”-segment.
You probably know all about BR already [taking advantages of bookies’ welcome bonuses], but if not, start with “BR”.
Otherwise you head straight to “More involved betting concepts” and begin there.
As for the novices, if you’re intrigued by coding, complement the “More involved betting concepts” with the “Coding”-segment.
Welcome to the BowTiedBettor Substack! - [Level 1 - NGMI] - Our first post.
Betting 101 - [Level 1 - NGMI] - This post explains the basics of betting and provides solid information on many important betting terms. Odds, probability, implied probability, EV, ROI, variance, RTP…
So you’re gonna be a bettor, huh? - [Level 2 - DEEP DIVER] - Gives the bigger picture of what’s necessary to even have a shot at succeeding in betting. Illustrates the path from an NGMI to a sharp.
Bonus rugging 101 - [Level 3 - WAGMI] - An overview of bonus rugging. Teaches you the basics of how to successfully take advantage of bookies’ welcome bonuses.
Qualifying bet 101 - [Level 3 - WAGMI] - Discusses the first out of three fundamental offer types in BR, the qualifying bet, in detail.
Freebet 101 - [Level 3 - WAGMI] - Discusses the second out of three fundamental offer types in BR, the freebet, in detail.
Risk-free bet 101 - [Level 3 - WAGMI] - Discusses the third out of three fundamental offer types in BR, the risk-free bet, in detail.
Breakdown by state [AZ & NY] - [Level 3 - WAGMI] - Complete BR-guides for two US states, Arizona and New York, however with content that generalizes well to any state. Breaks down:
Which sportsbooks to focus on.
In what order you should take advantage of the different offers.
Exactly how to proceed with each promotion.
The #1 US offer, a freebet inside a risk-free bet - [Level 3 - WAGMI] - Learn how to properly take advantage of the most common sportsbook promotion in the US, a risk-free bet whose stake [if lost] is returned in freebet credits.
Practical information - *IMPORTANT* - [Level 4 - WAGMI 2.0] - The key post for a smooth execution of the BR-scheme.
Information on how to set everything up correctly.
Excel file for simplified bookkeeping.
All you need to know on the technique of finding suitable offers & relevant games.
Using the calculators, part 1 - [Level 4 - WAGMI 2.0] - Complete guides and some random tips & tricks concerning the qualifying bet calculator, the freebet calculator and the risk-free bet calculator.
Using the calculators, part 2 - [Level 4 - WAGMI 2.0] - Full overviews and tips & tricks on the exchange calculator and the master calculator. Furthermore, it contains a lengthy discussion of the *extreme* benefits of understanding and using the master calculator.
More involved betting concepts
Conditional probability & Bayes Theorem - [Level 2 - DEEP DIVER] - The art of conditional thinking is most definitely a hack, not only in betting. This post presents the basics of it.
Practical aspects of betting - [Level 2 - DEEP DIVER] - What’s required to run a successful betting operation? A discussion of day-to-day stuff such as limits, multi accounting, price discovery & much more.
Introducing BowTied BetPicks - [Level 2 - DEEP DIVER] - A brief overview of BowTied BetPicks, a +EV steam chasing service that lets you pick sportsbooks offering odds on UK/IRE horse racing off.
A Thought Or Two - [Level 4 - WAGMI 2.0] - A thoughtful treatment of market efficiency via a development of a precise distributional framework. Contains the true reason for why the Cartoon Horse keeps shilling Bayes!
Bayesian thinking & inference, part 1 - [Level 4 - WAGMI 2.0] - Learn how to learn from data, the bayesian way.
Bayesian thinking & inference, part 2 - [Level ∞ - BILL BETTOR] - What’s the probability of a NHL team winning a game, conditional on taking a lead into the third period? This post offers a Bayesian perspective on this fairly trivial question. Includes probabilistic programming in PyMC, an overview of the Bayesian workflow & some deep insights regarding data.
An initial look on the Kelly Criterion - [Level 4 - WAGMI 2.0] - Kelly is our favourite betting concept & it’s so much more than the stupid simple formula everyone refers to. Here’s an introduction to it.
The generalized Kelly Criterion - [Level 5 - SHARP] - A second look at the basics of the Kelly Criterion, now from a multidimensional point of view.
The Power Of Simulations - [Level 5 - SHARP] - Bootstrapping in Monte Carlo? Magic! Get to know one of the most *powerful* frameworks a bettor might equip himself with...
Bet sequences, an analysis - [Level ∞ - BILL BETTOR] - A comprehensive examination of bet sequences - the random sequences/processes that arise when a bettor places numerous bets within a certain time frame. P&L’s, ROI’s, Monte Carlo methods & Bayesian inference.
The art of pricing uncertainty - [Level ∞ - BILL BETTOR] - Discusses how the amount of uncertainty naturally acts as one of the fundamental pieces of the pricing process, as well as how it at times can yield unintuitive results.
Note: Our coding material assumes that you have some familiarity with Python.
Betting meets automation - [Level 2 - DEEP DIVER] - A brief discussion of what automation can bring to the betting table, combined with a note or two regarding when it does & when it doesn’t make sense to convert ideas into code.
A gentle introduction to the Betfair API - [Level 3 - WAGMI] - Introducing betfairlightweight & the Betfair API. Learn how to set up a Betfair account, generate an API-key and perform some basic operations.
Build your first odds scraper - [Level 5 - SHARP] - This post lets you acquaint yourself with Selenium, a browser automation tool suitable for scraping sports betting websites. Here, we utilize it to fetch NHL data from Unibet.
Scraping time… Selenium too slow! - [Level 5 - SHARP] - The most efficient way to gather online data is to mimic the behaviour of your web browser. Learn how in this post, where we again construct a simple Unibet NHL web scraper, however this time using more straightforward and considerably faster methods.
DraftKings scraping project, part 1/3 - [Level 5 - SHARP] - Nothing teaches you web scraping like a real web scraping project. Follow along as we initialize the creation of a complete DraftKings scraper.
DraftKings scraping project, part 2/3 - [Level 5 - SHARP] - Part 2 of our DraftKings series. As we transition into live odds scraping/streaming, the autism intensifies. For instance, you get to know the basics of the two Python libraries websockets & asyncio.
As you’ve probably noticed above, the posts within each segment have been assigned a certain level. Level 1 & 2 is meant to offer a simple and straightforward view of the world of betting and will stay FREE to offer insight for possible prospects. 3 & 4 are of medium difficulty while higher levels are intended to be *hard* in order to keep all the turbo autists satisfied.
Level ∞ - BILL BETTOR - Automated betting, exchange-API usage, advanced money management, model building, advanced Bayesian thinking.
Level 5 - SHARP - Exchange trading, web scraping, Bayesian models.
Level 4 - WAGMI 2.0 - Money management, optimizing portfolio growth.
Level 3 - WAGMI - Get started, collect your first 5 000 USTT.
Level 2 - DEEP DIVER - Delving deeper into the world of betting.
Level 1 - NGMI - Explaining the basics.
Note: If you prefer to proceed by level of difficulty, visit the BowTiedBettor website archive to have our posts sorted according to levels.
Finally: Hope you’ll enjoy the content!
Until next time…
Disclaimer: None of this is to be deemed legal or financial advice of any kind. These are *opinions* written by an anonymous group of mathematicians who moved into betting.